Trump's Hormuz U-turn signals he can't find a way out of the Iran war
Image: BBC News
In a single day, Donald Trump sketched a bold new charge on global shipping — then tore it up. The whiplash captures a president struggling to close a war that refuses to end.
On Monday, announcing the resumption of a US naval blockade on Iranian shipping, Trump declared that all vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz — including those of allies — must pay a 20% fee to reimburse America. By Tuesday, he had abandoned it entirely, offering instead vague "trade and investment deals" in return for safe passage.
The abrupt reversal is the latest twist in a conflict now past four months. A month-old memorandum of understanding had promised a temporary ceasefire and a framework for talks; it collapsed on Truth Social when Trump announced the blockade was back, alongside fresh US strikes.
Why it matters: The episode exposes the limits of Trump's leverage. Reluctant to escalate a deeply unpopular war, wary of rising energy prices and of US forces coming under fire again, he appears unable to secure either victory or exit. "I think the most likely ending is a non-ending," says Rosemary Kelanic of Defense Priorities. "This has turned into a war of attrition."
Iran, for its part, stepped up attacks on US allies and commercial shipping, grinding Hormuz traffic to a near standstill once more. The Strait carries a fifth of the world's oil — so every flare-up ripples through global markets.
While US forces have degraded Iranian ships, planes and defences, the politics remain unresolved. "Ceasefire" has become a movable label, punctured by hostilities that test its meaning.
What's next: With negotiations stalled and the blockade renewed, Trump faces the same dilemma that has dogged the war — how to claim success without a settlement, or wind down without appearing to lose.