Strait of Hormuz remains the fault line as Iran and US drift back to war
Image: BBC News
The uneasy "no war, no peace" stand-off between the US and Iran has tipped back toward open conflict — and one stretch of water is the fault line.
A tentative deal signed last month was meant to steady things. But the truce now looks broken, with both sides trading strikes and mediators scrambling. At its centre is the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint through which a fifth of the world's oil flows.
Iran is making clear its control of the corridor is a "bright red line" no pressure can break. Its lead negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf put it bluntly on social media: "Keep your word or pay the price."
The dispute hinges on a vague clause. Tehran reads the agreement as giving it sway over the strait's management; Washington insists it must keep global oil and gas flowing freely. "You can drive a truck through those clauses," one regional oil executive said.
New leadership in Tehran, forged in weeks of all-out war and assassinations, appears united on strategy but shows "clear and growing signs of splits" over what to do next.
Arab and Pakistani mediators may yet pull the truce back from the brink. But with Hormuz at stake, the risk of a wider shock to energy markets is far from over.